Eastern Turkey earthquake 10/23/2011

Kalplerimizde Bu yağmurlar (Turkish for ‘it rains in our hearts’)

A Richter 7.2 at 2011/20/23 10:41:21 UTC at 38.628 (north latitude); 43.486 (east longitude) and 20 kilometers deep.

We would expect 600 or more dead and a similar number injured. Several years ago when we were simulating the economic consequences of an autonomous Kurdistan we mentioned in a footnote that our models suggested either a Richter 7.8 or two 7.3s (a tuple) inside the triangle delimited by Tabriz in the  east and Mosul in the south.